The Congolese government acknowledged the presence of the rebels in Bukavu and suggested that Rwandan troops may have also entered the city, although it refrained from asserting that the city was fully under rebel control. In an official statement, the government expressed concern over Rwanda’s actions, accusing it of pursuing a strategy that could lead to occupation and the commission of serious human rights violations.

The rapid progress of the rebels since the beginning of the year, coupled with the involvement of foreign troops, has raised concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. These tensions are deeply rooted in historical issues related to power, identity, and resource control, which have been ongoing since the 1990s, particularly following the Rwandan genocide.

Rwanda has rejected accusations from Congo and Western powers that its military is directly supporting the M23 rebels, asserting instead that it is defending itself from threats posed by a Hutu militia that is allegedly allied with the Congolese military. The British Foreign Ministry has expressed concern that the presence of both M23 and Rwandan Defence Force troops in Bukavu could escalate the situation, potentially leading to broader regional instability with severe humanitarian consequences.

Unlike the intense conflict surrounding the capture of Goma, which led to significant loss of life, there were no immediate reports of violence in Bukavu on Sunday. Local residents noted the movement of M23 forces through central districts without encountering significant opposition.

The recent territorial gains made by the rebels in North and South Kivu have resulted in control over more land than any other rebel faction since the end of Congo’s two major wars (1996–2003). These advances have also given them access to key mineral resources in the region.

Congo remains a major global producer of cobalt, a critical resource for electric vehicle and mobile phone batteries. Additionally, it ranks as the third-largest producer of copper and possesses substantial reserves of coltan, lithium, tin, tungsten, tantalum, and gold. Given the understanding of how mineral-rich the DRC is, the intentions become obvious. The M23 is acting on behalf of a much larger power that seeks to exploit these valuable resources.

If the M23 were to capture Bukavu, it would mark a significant and unprecedented expansion of their control and further weaken the authority of the Congolese government, especially after the fall of Goma, the largest city in the region, in late January. The ongoing conflict in South Kivu also raised concerns about the possibility of a wider war, with Burundian troops backing Congo and reports of additional Rwandan forces amassing near the border to assist the M23.

Despite a temporary halt in their advance towards Bukavu, after announcing a unilateral ceasefire, the M23 rebels maintained their demand for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. Regional leaders called for direct talks between Congo’s government, led by President Felix Tshisekedi, and the M23 rebels. However, Tshisekedi’s UDPS party firmly rejected the idea of bilateral talks with the M23, insisting that negotiations must involve all armed groups in the region within a broader peace process led by the East African regional bloc.

Although the M23 had not made significant territorial gains since their capture of the mining town of Nyabibwe the previous week, the group remained vocal about their intentions. Lawrence Kanyuka, a spokesperson for the rebel alliance that includes the M23, said that the situation in Bukavu was worsening as civilians continued to suffer from violence and looting. He warned that if these actions persisted, the M23 would take decisive steps to eliminate the threat and protect the population.

The rebels’ violence escalated when they burned down a prison in Nyabibwe, releasing inmates, further destabilising the region. In a horrific act, several women in the prison were forced into brutal sexual violence before the prison was set ablaze. Many women, children, and babies were trapped inside and died in the fire, adding to the growing list of atrocities committed by the rebels. This brutal attack, which claimed innocent lives, further deepened the fear and anger among the local population and underscored the growing reach and ruthlessness of the M23.

Meanwhile, the security situation in South Kivu became even more chaotic, as reports emerged of Congolese soldiers abandoning their posts, looting villages, and attacking civilians. 

In response to this, a military court in Bukavu convened on Tuesday to review the cases of 272 detained soldiers and militia members. These individuals were facing charges related to looting and murder. A spokesperson for the Congolese army announced that an operation led by a regional military commander had resulted in the arrest of undisciplined soldiers involved in these actions.

As for the prison in Bukavu, the worsening security situation put immense pressure on local institutions. The presence of prisoners awaiting trial, including those involved in looting and violence, underscored the fragile stability in the region. The military court’s proceedings highlighted the increasing difficulty in maintaining order and security as both the M23 rebels and undisciplined soldiers posed a direct threat to civilian safety and governmental control.