Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the Middle East while U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran continue, raising fears of a major disruption to global energy supplies. The warning comes as the conflict, which began in late February, intensifies across the region.

The threat centers on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally passes. The ongoing conflict has already effectively halted tanker traffic through the waterway for more than a week, forcing producers to slow or stop pumping as storage facilities reach capacity.

President Trump responded with a stark warning that any attempt by Iran to block the flow of oil would trigger a far more intense U.S. military response.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

Despite the sharp rhetoric, Trump also suggested the conflict could end sooner than expected, saying U.S. strikes have already inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. However, he has not clearly defined what would constitute victory in the war.

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on Iran, where officials say more than 1,300 civilians have been killed and thousands wounded in air and missile strikes carried out by the United States and Israel since late February. Key infrastructure, including oil facilities and military sites, has also been damaged.

Iran has shown little sign of backing down. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader has been interpreted by analysts as a signal that Tehran intends to maintain a hard-line stance despite mounting military pressure.

The escalating confrontation has rattled global financial markets and sent oil prices swinging sharply as traders assess the risk of a prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

Diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider regional war are ongoing, but with both sides issuing increasingly severe warnings, the situation remains highly volatile.

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Delegations from Washington and Tehran met in Switzerland amid mounting pressure on Iran to agree to a new framework limiting its nuclear activities. The talks come as the United States has reportedly increased its military presence in the Middle East ahead of the discussions.

President Donald Trump warned last week that “bad things” would happen if Iran fails to reach a new agreement with Washington, signaling that diplomatic efforts are backed by significant strategic leverage.

On the eve of the negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran’s refusal to include its intercontinental ballistic missile development in the talks as a major obstacle. Rubio stated that beyond nuclear concerns, Iran’s conventional weapons capabilities were “solely designed to attack America and attack Americans, if they so choose to do so,” adding that these issues “have to be addressed” in any comprehensive deal.

Iran has maintained that its missile program is defensive in nature and has historically resisted including it in nuclear negotiations.

The renewed dialogue follows years of strained relations and stalled diplomacy over Tehran’s uranium enrichment levels and regional military posture. Analysts say the outcome of the Geneva talks could significantly impact regional stability, global energy markets, and broader U.S.-Middle East relations.

Trump reiterated that the United States will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon under any circumstances. He framed the issue as a matter of global security, emphasizing that Washington remains prepared to pursue diplomatic solutions but is equally prepared to act if necessary.

Addressing the Iranian leadership directly, Trump drew a distinction between Iran’s government and its citizens, saying the Iranian people are not the same as their leaders. He referenced reports that 837 individuals were facing execution, claiming his intervention helped avert those actions.

The remarks come amid heightened tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities and ongoing diplomatic efforts to negotiate limits on enrichment and inspections. U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East remains a core national security objective.

While Trump emphasized a preference for negotiation, his language signaled that patience may be limited. “A fair deal” was presented as the preferred path forward, but the president made clear that failure to reach an agreement could result in stronger measures.

The statement adds to growing uncertainty over the future of U.S.–Iran relations, as diplomatic channels remain active but fragile. Observers say the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether negotiations advance or tensions escalate further.