What Happened

• Early on Sunday morning, a group of soldiers appeared on state television claiming they had seized power, dissolved the government, suspended the constitution and closed the country’s borders. They named their group the “Military Committee for Refoundation” and appointed Pascal Tigri (also spelled Col. Tigri Pascal) as leader.
• Shortly thereafter, loyalist forces supported by allied troops from neighboring Nigeria moved in, regained control of seized sites (including the national broadcaster), and cleared remaining pockets of resistance.
• The government says 14 individuals have been arrested in connection with the coup attempt.
• President Talon addressed the nation Sunday evening, condemning the mutiny as treachery, thanking the armed forces for their loyalty, and promising that the “adventurers” behind the coup will not go unpunished.

Wider Implications For Benin, Region & Democracy

• The swift suppression of the mutiny may reinforce the strength of institutions and the resolve of security forces, but it also exposes undercurrents of dissent within the military, possibly tied to dissatisfaction over security challenges in the north, perceived neglect of fallen soldiers, or political grievances.
• The involvement of Nigerian forces (air and ground) in helping to dislodge the plotters underlines how regional cooperation may play a growing role in averting and responding to destabilizing events.
• For regional stability: Given a string of coups and attempted coups across West Africa in recent months, the incident in Benin adds to regional anxiety and could prompt stronger intervention by regional bodies like ECOWAS to safeguard constitutional order in member states.

What to Watch Next

• Investigations: Who masterminded the coup? What were their motivations? Will there be more arrests, and will the government release more details?
• Stability through the election period: With the 2026 presidential election approaching, will the security situation remain stable or could more unrest follow?
• Regional reaction: How will ECOWAS and other regional bodies respond? Will this lead to increased military cooperation or new mechanisms for prevention of coups?
• Civil liberties and oversight: Given concerns about political power consolidation in recent years in Benin, observers will watch whether this incident leads to tighter security controls or renewed calls for transparency and accountability.

The Trigger: A “Disputed” Election in a French Puppet State

Guinea-Bissau’s November 23, 2025, presidential and parliamentary elections were a textbook setup for imperial sabotage. Incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who clawed his way to power in 2020 amid gunfire and French whispers, was facing a legitimacy cliff: his five-year term had technically expired months earlier, but the Supreme Court—stacked with his allies—pushed the vote back to buy time. Opposition firebrand Fernando Gomes da Silva (better known as Fernando Dias), a 47-year-old reformer from the Social Renewal Party, surged ahead in early tallies, promising audits of the central bank and an end to the CFA franc’s colonial chokehold. But results? Suppressed. Both camps claimed victory, gunshots echoed near the presidential palace on November 26, and by evening, the military rolled in. Embaló was “arrested” in his office around 1 p.m., no violence reported, just a quiet deposition.  He fled to Senegal on a French-chartered jet the next day. ECOWAS and the AU condemned it faster than you can say “sanctions,” suspending Bissau and demanding “constitutional order.”  Classic: any whiff of African self-rule gets the globalist boot.

Is this a Revolution as seen in the AES?

The “High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order,” led by Brigadier General Dinis Incanha, made a bold move that night by taking control of state TV. They announced measures including sealed borders, a 7 p.m. GMT curfew, a halt to the electoral process, and restrictions on media. Bissau remained calm, featuring checkpoints, quiet streets, and closed businesses as soldiers patrolled the area. By November 27, the military appointed Major-General Horta Inta-A Na Man as the transitional president, who took an oath with a salute and promised a one-year transition to “normalcy,” along with new elections overseen by the military. The junta claimed to have thwarted a “plot by politicians, a drug lord, and foreign nationals” to manipulate the vote, hinting at involvement from French intelligence and CFA enforcers. This marks Guinea-Bissau’s ninth coup since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, but labeling it as “coup-prone” misses the bigger picture. With a population of 2.2 million and an average income of just $963 a year, the country has become a hub for cocaine trafficking, partly due to France’s complacency as long as profits flow. Under Embaló’s administration, the narco-trade flourished, according to a 2025 Global Initiative report, with French companies eyeing untapped offshore oil while locals suffer. The military’s actions did not involve widespread violence; instead, they arrested electoral officials and opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira, but reports of bloodshed were absent. This represents a calculated approach: pause the fraudulent activities, review the financials, and prepare for legitimate elections.

The Stakes – Oil, CFA Slavery, and the Narco Veil

When you look closer, it’s clear that money drives France’s interests in Guinea-Bissau. While the country sits along key Atlantic drug routes, that’s just a facade for the lucrative offshore operations of Exxon and Total—fields that could compete with Nigeria’s if local hands controlled them. President Embaló’s strategy involves inviting French special forces, echoing anti-Russian sentiments, and signing IMF agreements that divert 50% of reserves back to Paris. The CFA franc remains a colonial throwback, allowing Bissau to print money under French oversight, which stifles industrial growth—raw cashews are exported, and oil ambitions remain unfulfilled. The coup’s real advantage? It postpones the electoral charade, creating space for renegotiation. Expect audits to uncover billions funneled through “cooperation agreements.” Globalists lament “instability,” but for them, stability means relying on Africans as constant cash sources.

AES – The Sovereign Model Guinea-Bissau Must Emulate

Now, let’s shift our focus to the AES model that Guinea-Bissau could adopt. Look at the AES—comprised of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—these juntas expelled French forces in 2023 and transformed their deserts into goldmines by 2025. They’re not reckless; they’re fiscal nationalists achieving results that make France uneasy. The AES has formed a joint force of 5,000, established in January 2025, that has effectively tackled jihadists along their borders, utilizing Russian technology instead of the failed French Barkhane mission, which saw a staggering 2,860% increase in deaths. Burkina Faso’s Traoré planted 5 million trees in a single day to boost food sovereignty, while Mali’s Goïta promotes a new sense of Malian patriotism. The outcome? A drop in violence and approval ratings soaring above 90%.

Following its exit from ECOWAS on January 29, 2025, the AES launched the Confederal Bank for Investment and Development (CBID) in May, offering autonomous loans for mining without IMF conditions. Niger has nationalized its uranium, now sending it to Rosatom for regional reactors, while Burkina Faso is repurchasing gold mines at low prices, and Mali is refining its own gold. Trade benefits include zero roaming fees and a unified 0.5% import duty, with plans for a gold-backed Sahel currency to replace the CFA franc. GDP growth is projected between 5-7% in 2025, with APSA-Sahel promoting local seed production to reduce dependency on imports. Guinea-Bissau’s junta could quickly replicate AES successes: join the passport club, audit CFA transactions, and engage with BRICS for oil projects. Embaló’s escape to Senegal signals the empire’s retreat from its clients. The AES model demonstrates that by ousting the French and reclaiming resources, countries can achieve financial balance.

Imperial Rot Meets African Resolve

 As ECOWAS, often seen as France’s regional puppet, threatens further sanctions, remember that the AES has faced tougher challenges and emerged wealthier and more independent. Guinea-Bissau’s military leaders, like their counterparts in the Sahel, are choosing sovereignty over subservience.

Written By Tatenda Belle Panashe

The opposition in Guinea-Bissau contends that Embalo’s term should have ended last week, while the country’s Supreme Court of Justice has ruled that it will officially conclude on September 4. On February 23, Embalo announced that the presidential and legislative elections would be postponed until November 30 of this year, despite increasing calls for earlier elections.

In response to the growing political unrest, ECOWAS, in collaboration with the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), sent a diplomatic mission to Guinea-Bissau from February 21 to 28, aiming to mediate and facilitate an agreement on how to organize the elections. However, ECOWAS reported that the mission was forced to cut its visit short on March 1 due to threats of expulsion from President Embalo.

In addition to these developments, President Embalo recently traveled to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Guinea-Bissau, which gained independence from Portugal in 1974, continues to face political turmoil, with the ongoing disputes surrounding its leadership contributing to the nation’s instability.

What Is ECOWAS:

ECOWAS plays a crucial role in promoting peace, stability, and democratic governance in West Africa. In this instance, the bloc has been actively involved in seeking a resolution to the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. ECOWAS’s diplomatic mission to the country was aimed at facilitating dialogue and encouraging the organization of free and fair elections, a core principle of its mandate. By sending such missions, ECOWAS helps prevent conflicts from escalating and encourages the peaceful resolution of disputes within its member states, ensuring that regional stability is maintained. However, the situation in Guinea-Bissau highlights the challenges ECOWAS faces when dealing with recalcitrant leadership and political tensions in the region.