The ultimatum, issued over the weekend, demanded that Iran fully reopen the strategically vital waterway or face U.S. military strikes targeting its energy infrastructure.

Iran Issues Stark Warning

In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed a sweeping retaliation if the United States follows through on its threat.

Iranian officials said they would target:

• Power plants supplying U.S. military bases
• Energy and industrial infrastructure linked to American interests
• Facilities in Gulf countries hosting U.S. forces

The IRGC warned that if power plants are attacked, Iran will retaliate by targeting regional electricity and energy networks tied to the United States.

Tehran has also warned it could completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz a move that would further disrupt global energy markets if its own infrastructure is struck.

A Global Energy Chokepoint at Risk

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, with roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passing through it.

Iran’s partial blockade in recent weeks has already triggered:

• Sharp increases in global oil prices
• Disruptions to shipping and insurance markets
• Growing fears of a prolonged energy crisis

Analysts warn that a full closure could spark the worst global oil shock in decades.

Military Escalation Builds

The United States has significantly increased its military presence in the region, deploying additional troops, aircraft and naval assets amid fears of an imminent confrontation.

Trump has signaled that any strike would begin with Iran’s largest power facilities, framing the move as necessary to restore freedom of navigation through the strait.

Meanwhile, Iran has continued missile attacks linked to the broader regional conflict, which began in late February following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

Regional and Global Fallout

Gulf nations many of which host U.S. bases now face the risk of being drawn directly into the conflict if Iran carries out its threats against regional infrastructure.

Western and allied governments have condemned Iran’s actions and called for the immediate reopening of the strait, warning of severe economic consequences worldwide.

Energy markets remain on edge, with prices rising amid fears of supply disruptions and broader instability.

Countdown to Confrontation

As the deadline expires, the situation remains highly volatile.

Iran has made clear it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz under threat, while the United States has indicated it is prepared to act militarily if its demands are not met.

With both sides holding firm, the coming hours could prove decisive potentially determining whether the crisis escalates into a wider regional war or shifts toward a fragile de-escalation.

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Experts warn the conflict could reverse recent progress in stabilizing food costs, which were already under pressure from previous global crises.

Fertilizer shortages raise alarm

Fertilizer supplies, critical for modern agriculture, have been severely disrupted due to the conflict and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices for key fertilizers have surged 30–40 percent in recent weeks.

This threatens crop yields for staples such as wheat, corn and rice. Countries in Africa and parts of Asia including Kenya, Somalia and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on imports from the Gulf region.

Energy crisis adds pressure to food systems

Rising oil and gas prices caused by attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure are further increasing the cost of food production, transportation and storage.

Higher fuel costs make it more expensive to operate farm machinery, transport goods and maintain cold storage, all contributing to higher food prices globally.

Developing nations face the greatest risk

Economists and humanitarian organizations warn that developing countries will bear the brunt of the crisis. Many are still recovering from previous food shocks and lack the fiscal resources to subsidize food or support farmers.

Rising prices could increase hunger, strain humanitarian operations and heighten the risk of social unrest in vulnerable regions.

Global markets respond to uncertainty

Markets are reacting to the conflict, with central banks warning that rising energy and food costs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth.

The European Central Bank and other institutions have highlighted the uncertainty caused by the war, noting that higher energy and food prices complicate economic stability efforts.

Danger of prolonged disruption

Experts warn that the longer the conflict continues, the higher the risk of long-term damage to global food systems.

Disruptions to fertilizer supplies during key planting seasons could reduce agricultural output later in the year, causing sustained price increases and potential shortages.

Uncertain outlook

Governments and international organizations are preparing for the possibility of a sustained crisis. Emergency measures, including financial aid and food assistance programs, are being considered to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable populations.

However, without a de-escalation of the conflict, the world could face another major food-price surge one that disproportionately affects the poorest countries.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the Middle East while U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran continue, raising fears of a major disruption to global energy supplies. The warning comes as the conflict, which began in late February, intensifies across the region.

The threat centers on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally passes. The ongoing conflict has already effectively halted tanker traffic through the waterway for more than a week, forcing producers to slow or stop pumping as storage facilities reach capacity.

President Trump responded with a stark warning that any attempt by Iran to block the flow of oil would trigger a far more intense U.S. military response.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

Despite the sharp rhetoric, Trump also suggested the conflict could end sooner than expected, saying U.S. strikes have already inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. However, he has not clearly defined what would constitute victory in the war.

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on Iran, where officials say more than 1,300 civilians have been killed and thousands wounded in air and missile strikes carried out by the United States and Israel since late February. Key infrastructure, including oil facilities and military sites, has also been damaged.

Iran has shown little sign of backing down. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader has been interpreted by analysts as a signal that Tehran intends to maintain a hard-line stance despite mounting military pressure.

The escalating confrontation has rattled global financial markets and sent oil prices swinging sharply as traders assess the risk of a prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

Diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider regional war are ongoing, but with both sides issuing increasingly severe warnings, the situation remains highly volatile.

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