The proposal, a 15-point plan put forward by the United States and delivered to Tehran via Pakistani intermediaries, has not been formally accepted or rejected. While Iranian officials publicly criticized the initiative, internal deliberations appear to be ongoing, suggesting divisions within Tehran over how to proceed.

Initial reaction “not positive,” but no final decision

A senior Iranian official reported that Tehran’s preliminary response to Washington’s proposal “was not positive,” though it has already been communicated back to the United States through Pakistan.

Despite this, Iran has stopped short of issuing a definitive rejection. The delay in providing a formal answer has fueled speculation that parts of the Iranian leadership may still be weighing the strategic benefits of engaging with the proposal.

Conflicting signals have emerged from Iranian media and officials. State-linked outlets suggested the proposal had been rejected outright, while other sources indicated that discussions are continuing behind closed doors.

What the U.S. proposal includes

According to officials familiar with the plan, the U.S. framework outlines sweeping conditions for de-escalation. These include demands that Iran halt uranium enrichment, scale back its ballistic missile program, and end support for regional allied groups. In exchange, the proposal reportedly offers sanctions relief and a pathway toward a ceasefire.

However, Iranian officials have criticized the terms as overly one-sided. Some described the plan as “maximalist and unreasonable,” reflecting deep mistrust toward Washington’s intentions.

Mediation efforts and indirect diplomacy

Pakistan has emerged as a key intermediary, relaying messages between Tehran and Washington. Officials in Islamabad confirmed they are still awaiting a definitive response from Iran’s leadership.

Other regional actors, including Egypt and Turkey, are also reportedly involved in efforts to broker talks, with potential venues for negotiations under discussion.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran continues to publicly deny direct negotiations with the United States, maintaining a hardline stance in official statements.

War continues amid fragile diplomacy

The diplomatic maneuvering comes against the backdrop of escalating military conflict across the Middle East. Ongoing strikes between Iran, Israel, and U.S.-linked forces have caused significant damage and casualties, while tensions in key strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz remain high.

The United States has also increased its military presence in the region, underscoring the fragile balance between diplomacy and further escalation.

Global implications

News that Iran is still considering the proposal has had immediate international repercussions. Markets reacted positively to the possibility of de-escalation, while global leaders, including the United Nations, have called for restraint and renewed diplomatic engagement.

Nevertheless, major obstacles remain. Iran has signaled it may only accept a settlement on its own terms, while U.S. officials continue to push for broad concessions, leaving the outcome uncertain.

Outlook

For now, the situation remains fluid. Iran’s willingness to keep the proposal under review despite its negative initial reaction suggests that diplomacy is still a viable, if uncertain, path forward.

Whether the current backchannel discussions can translate into formal negotiations or a ceasefire will likely depend on both sides’ ability to bridge deep political and strategic divides in the days ahead.

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Larijani, a prominent political figure and former secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran on March 17, according to Iranian state media. His death marks one of the most significant blows to Iran’s leadership in recent months.

Leadership Vacuum Widens

Analysts say Larijani’s death creates a serious gap within Iran’s already strained leadership structure. Known for his experience and influence across political, military and clerical circles, he played a key role in shaping Iran’s strategic decisions.

“Figures like Larijani are not easily replaced, especially under wartime conditions,” regional experts note. His absence is expected to slow coordination and complicate high-level decision-making at a time when rapid responses are critical.

Shift Toward Hardline Control

In the aftermath of the strike, power is increasingly expected to shift toward Iran’s military establishment, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This could result in a more hardline approach to the conflict.

Larijani had long been seen as a pragmatic conservative capable of balancing military priorities with diplomatic engagement. Without him, Iran may find it harder to pursue flexible strategies or explore de-escalation.

Diplomatic Options Shrink

The loss of Larijani also reduces the likelihood of diplomatic breakthroughs. He was considered one of the few figures within Iran’s system who maintained credibility both domestically and internationally.

His involvement in past negotiations and his ability to bridge internal factions made him a valuable channel for dialogue. Analysts warn that his death could weaken already limited prospects for negotiation.

Internal Uncertainty Grows

The assassination has heightened concerns within Iran’s leadership about security vulnerabilities. The ability of foreign intelligence to target senior officials has raised fears of further attacks.

At the same time, internal political dynamics are becoming more fluid, as different factions may compete to fill the vacuum left by Larijani. This could further complicate decision-making and delay coherent responses.

Fewer Strategic Choices

With leadership losses mounting and pressure from external forces increasing, Iran’s strategic options appear increasingly constrained. The government faces a difficult choice between escalating the conflict or seeking ways to stabilize the situation.

However, both paths carry significant risks. Escalation could invite stronger retaliation, while restraint may be seen as weakness internally and externally.

A Critical Moment

Larijani’s killing highlights a shift in the nature of the conflict, where targeted strikes against key individuals are having far-reaching political consequences.

As Iran navigates this period of uncertainty, the loss of one of its most experienced figures may have lasting implications not only for its internal stability but also for the broader regional balance.

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Last week, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader by a hardline clerical council after his father was killed in a U.S. and Israeli airstrike. While Mojtaba inherits formal authority and strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, analysts and interviews with insiders suggest his loyalist base is markedly narrower and weaker than that of previous leaders.

Shrinking Support Among Hardliners

Experts say Iran’s hardline ideological base once bolstered by decades of state patronage, revolutionary zeal and mass mobilization has eroded significantly due to long-term economic stagnation, political repression and growing public frustration. “The strategy in choosing a hardliner as the new leader would be to consolidate the base,” said Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St Andrews. “But they’re ending up with an increasingly small circle of supporters. And the longer this goes on, the more it will all fray at the edges.”

Interviews with members of the Basij the volunteer militia long seen as a backbone of revolutionary support show deepening uncertainty even among staunch loyalists. Some Basij members still express readiness to defend the regime at all costs, but others acknowledge that privileges once enjoyed by regime supporters, such as preferential university spots and job opportunities, are vanishing amid economic collapse.

Core Loyalists vs. Wider Public Skepticism

While a core of diehard supporters remains those who consistently back the ideological system and actively participate in suppressing opposition their numbers appear diminished compared with earlier decades. In Iran’s last national election, hardline candidates garnered much smaller vote totals relative to the eligible voting population, reflecting broader public disengagement or disapproval.

Ordinary Iranians interviewed for recent reports say they feel alienated by the regime’s long record of corruption, economic mismanagement and political repression leaving many skeptical about pledging unwavering loyalty to a leader chosen in extraordinary wartime conditions. “We need to be realistic,” said one Basij member from Mashhad, pointing to continued U.S. pressure and the ruinous effects of airstrikes. “How are they going to rebuild this economy?”

Impact on the Islamic Republic’s Future

The Islamic Republic was created in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution with broad grassroots support. Over decades, it built powerful institutions including the Revolutionary Guard and Basij that helped it endure both internal dissent and external pressures. However, the current combination of a devastating regional war, economic collapse and shrinking popular support has stretched that system to its limits.

Despite ongoing state-organized mourning ceremonies and public displays of loyalty, analysts caution that the regime’s traditional sources of legitimacy and stability are increasingly fraying. That fragility could shape Iran’s domestic politics for years, influence how the country pursues the ongoing conflict, and affect how both allies and adversaries engage with Tehran moving forward.

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The talks, confirmed by officials in France, which holds the rotating G7 presidency, will be coordinated with the International Energy Agency (IEA) as energy markets remain under intense pressure from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Prices Spike Amid Middle East Conflict

Oil prices have surged sharply in recent days amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, pushing benchmarks to their highest levels in years. Brent crude climbed as much as 25%, reaching levels not seen since the global energy turbulence of 2022, driven largely by concerns about supply disruptions through key transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict, which now involves Iran and Israel, has led to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping, prompting fears of prolonged disruption to exports from major oil-producing regions.

Coordinated Action on the Table

The G7 meeting which brings together finance ministers from United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Japan stating we will “review the situation in the Gulf from an economic point of view” and consider “multiple options,” including tapping into emergency stockpiles held under the IEA mechanism.

Three G7 nations, including the United States, have already signaled support for a coordinated release of reserves, according to earlier reports citing unnamed sources.

The IEA’s emergency reserves system was established in the 1970s to respond to crises such as the 1973 oil embargo, and coordinated releases have historically helped cushion markets during acute supply shocks.

Why It Matters

Oil price spikes can ripple across the global economy increasing transportation and manufacturing costs, stoking inflation and squeezing household budgets. Countries that rely heavily on imported fuel, including many in East Asia, Europe and Africa are particularly vulnerable to sharp cost increases.

In recent days, stock markets in Asia and Europe have plunged in tandem with oil prices, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and slower economic growth if energy costs remain elevated.

Political and Strategic Implications

The possible coordinated release comes at a politically sensitive moment. U.S. President Donald Trump has downplayed some economic impacts of the energy crisis, describing the price surge as a “small price to pay” for security objectives in the region comments that have drawn criticism from economic analysts.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders have underscored the need for a collective response to protect consumers and markets.

Officials say a formal decision on whether to actually release oil from emergency reserves could come later this week, potentially including discussions at the G7 leaders’ level if markets continue to worsen.

Global Watch

As the G7 deliberates, other major economies and international organisations, including the United Nations and the World Bank, are watching closely recognising that instability in global energy markets can have far-reaching consequences for inflation, food security and economic growth worldwide.

The outcome of the meeting could provide a critical signal to markets and governments about the willingness of major powers to act collectively in the face of a rapidly escalating energy crisis.

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According to Hezbollah officials, Israel launched a series of air and ground strikes targeting suspected militant positions in the Bekaa Valley, a strategic region near the Syrian border long considered a stronghold for the Iranian-backed group. The attack comes amid intensifying cross-border clashes between Israel and Hezbollah since the outbreak of war involving Iran.

Escalation on Lebanon’s Eastern Front

Hezbollah said Israeli forces struck several facilities believed to house weapons depots and logistical infrastructure used by the group. Local residents reported loud explosions and heavy aircraft activity across parts of eastern Lebanon overnight.

The Israeli military has not released full operational details but said its forces were targeting “terror infrastructure” linked to Hezbollah’s military network. Israeli officials argue the strikes are necessary to prevent attacks on northern Israeli communities.

The Bekaa Valley has long served as a critical corridor for weapons transfers and supply routes from Syria to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Analysts say striking the region could significantly disrupt the group’s logistical capabilities but risks widening the war.

Security experts warn that continued strikes in eastern Lebanon could transform the current confrontation into a full-scale conflict along Israel’s northern border.

Hezbollah Vows Retaliation

In a statement released early Monday, Hezbollah condemned the Israeli raid and vowed retaliation. The group said its fighters would respond to what it called a “dangerous escalation” against Lebanese territory.

Since the start of the war, Hezbollah has launched dozens of rockets and drones toward northern Israel, while Israeli forces have conducted repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern and eastern Lebanon.

Military analysts say Hezbollah possesses one of the largest non-state missile arsenals in the world, including precision-guided rockets capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory. The group’s involvement significantly raises the stakes of the broader regional conflict.

Regional War Expands

The latest fighting comes amid the rapidly expanding confrontation between Iran and Israel, which has already triggered military exchanges across several parts of the Middle East.

Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have launched attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets in recent days, while Israeli forces have intensified strikes against suspected Iranian-linked infrastructure throughout the region.

International observers warn that the growing involvement of multiple armed groups increases the risk of a broader regional war that could destabilize the Middle East.

Humanitarian Concerns Rise

As the fighting continues, humanitarian agencies are warning about the impact on civilians in southern and eastern Lebanon, where thousands of families have reportedly fled their homes due to ongoing airstrikes and rocket fire.

Local authorities say infrastructure damage and power disruptions are complicating relief efforts, while hospitals in affected areas are preparing for a potential influx of casualties.

The United Nations has called for restraint from all sides and urged immediate efforts to prevent further escalation. Diplomats say back-channel negotiations are underway to contain the conflict, though no breakthrough has yet been announced.

A Region on Edge

With the war now entering its second week, the Israeli raid in eastern Lebanon underscores how quickly the conflict is expanding beyond its initial flashpoints.

Analysts warn that unless diplomatic efforts succeed in de-escalating tensions, continued attacks between Hezbollah and Israel could open a new and potentially devastating front in an already volatile regional war.

For now, the Middle East remains on edge as military operations intensify, and the risk of a wider confrontation grows with each passing day.

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The appointment was confirmed by the Assembly of Experts, the powerful clerical body responsible for selecting Iran’s supreme leader. Mojtaba succeeds his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike in late February during the escalating regional conflict.

Analysts say the move reflects Tehran’s decision to prioritize continuity and confrontation over compromise with the West.

A Direct Rebuke to Washington

The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei comes despite strong opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously dismissed the younger Khamenei as “unacceptable” and suggested Washington should influence Iran’s future leadership.

Iran’s decision to elevate him instead underscores the regime’s determination to maintain its ideological course and reject external pressure.

Regional experts say the move represents a symbolic and strategic response to Washington’s military campaign.

“Having Mojtaba take over is the same playbook,” said analyst Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, noting that the leadership transition ensures continuity of the system rather than reform.

Consolidation of Hardline Power

At 56, Mojtaba Khamenei has long been an influential but largely behind-the-scenes figure within Iran’s political and security establishment. He is widely believed to have close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful military organization that plays a central role in Iran’s domestic security and regional strategy.

His rise marks the first time the Islamic Republic’s top leadership has effectively passed from father to son an unusual development for a system that emerged from the 1979 revolution opposing hereditary rule.

Despite criticism over the dynastic aspect of the transition, key clerics and security leaders backed Mojtaba as the candidate most capable of preserving the regime during a period of war and political uncertainty.

War and Regional Escalation

The leadership change comes amid a rapidly escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. The strike that killed Ali Khamenei was part of a broader campaign targeting senior Iranian leadership and military infrastructure.

Fighting has since spread across the region, with missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli, U.S. and Gulf state positions while Israeli forces have struck sites in Iran and Lebanon. The conflict has already caused hundreds of casualties and raised fears of a wider regional war.

Global energy markets have also been affected, with disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices sharply higher.

Uncertain Path Ahead

Iran now faces mounting internal pressure from economic hardship and political unrest, alongside the external threat posed by ongoing military confrontation.

Observers say Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership is likely to bring an even more uncompromising stance toward the United States and its allies.

For now, Tehran’s message appears clear: despite war, sanctions and foreign pressure, the Islamic Republic intends to preserve its existing power structure and confront its adversaries head-on.

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The rights group said hundreds of people have been killed since unrest erupted over worsening economic conditions, soaring inflation and political repression. Thousands more are believed to have been injured or detained as security forces intensify crackdowns across major cities and provincial towns. Iranian authorities have not released official casualty figures.

The protests have drawn strong condemnation from the United States, with President Donald Trump warning Iran against violent repression of civilians. In response, Tehran issued a stark warning, threatening to target U.S. military bases in the region and Israel if Washington follows through on any military action against Iran.

Iranian officials accused the United States and its allies of inciting unrest and interfering in the country’s internal affairs. State media portrayed the protests as foreign backed, while rights organisations and opposition groups say the demonstrations reflect widespread domestic anger over economic hardship and political restrictions.

The rising death toll and escalating rhetoric have heightened fears of a broader regional confrontation, particularly as Iran’s allies and adversaries remain on high alert. Analysts warn that further violence against protesters could deepen Iran’s international isolation and increase the risk of direct conflict with the United States and Israel.

Calls have intensified from international organisations for an independent investigation into the deaths and for Iranian authorities to restore internet access, release detainees, and respect the right to peaceful protest.