On Sunday, M23 fighters staged a show of force in Goma, parading more than 7,000 new recruits, including what they claimed were former Congolese army soldiers and local militia members who had surrendered or joined their ranks. The rebels marched through the regional capital under the watch of commanders and regional observers.

The parade took place just weeks ahead of a U.S.-brokered peace agreement expected to be signed in Washington, raising concerns about the group’s true commitment to the negotiations.

Peace Deal Under Threat

The peace framework mediated by Qatar and backed by the United States is expected to call for the withdrawal of Rwandan support for M23, the return of occupied territories to Congolese authorities, and a commitment by both parties to halt hostilities. However, continued skirmishes in rebel-held areas and actions like Sunday’s parade suggest the situation remains volatile.

A United Nations panel of experts has stated that the M23 is heavily backed by Rwanda, with thousands of Rwandan troops reportedly operating in eastern Congo. Kigali has consistently denied these claims, but the accusations have contributed to growing international pressure on Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

The conflict in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces has resulted in over 3,000 deaths and the displacement of millions. The United Nations Human Rights Office released a report earlier this month documenting “horrific atrocities” committed by both the M23 rebels and the Congolese armed forces.

The report highlights crimes such as:

• Gang rape and sexual slavery

• Torture and extrajudicial killings

• Forced recruitment of child soldiers

• Systematic attacks on civilians

“These abuses are not one-sided. Responsibility lies with both the M23 and Congolese forces,” the UN report stated, further implicating Rwanda as complicit through its support of the rebels.

Rights groups, including Amnesty International, say they have documented forced recruitment in rebel held zones, particularly of young residents and surrendered soldiers.

A Fragile Path to Peace

The Qatar-led mediation had earlier shown signs of progress, with both sides committing to a ceasefire and agreeing to the framework of a negotiated settlement. But with ongoing violations of the ceasefire, rising tensions, and provocative shows of military power, analysts warn the window for a peaceful resolution may be closing.

As the eyes of the international community turn to Washington, where final negotiations are expected to take place, many in eastern Congo remain skeptical.

“People here want peace not parades,” said a resident in Goma who asked not to be named. “This is just a reminder that we’re still living under fear, no matter what the politicians say.”

In the misty highlands of North and South Kivu, the lifeblood of one of Africa’s most prized coffee growing regions is withering. As fighting intensifies between the Congolese government and M23 rebels, coffee farmers have been forced to flee, leaving behind ripe beans to rot on the branches.

“This harvest season was supposed to be the best in years,” said Jean Baptiste Mwami, a cooperative leader from Masisi. “But now the fields are abandoned, and the coffee is dying.”

The fertile slopes of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) produce some of the world’s finest Arabica beans, sought after in specialty markets across Europe and North America. But escalating violence in 2025  the most severe in over a decade is threatening to erase hardmwon gains made by smallholder farmers who have rebuilt after years of instability.

M23 Rebels Seize Strategic Towns

The M23 rebel group, widely believed to be backed by neighboring Rwanda, has taken control of key cities and transport routes in North and South Kivu since January, including Rutshuru, Kitshanga, and parts of Minembwe all critical zones in the regional coffee supply chain.

The Congolese government, backed by regional forces from the East African Community (EAC), has struggled to regain ground. Clashes have displaced over 800,000 people since the start of the year, according to the UNHCR, including thousands of farming families.

“We can’t access our farms, and the roads are too dangerous to transport anything,” said Marie Kalala, a farmer from Walungu now living in a temporary camp outside Bukavu.

Economic Crisis in the Making

Coffee is one of the DRC’s most promising agricultural exports, especially since international aid organizations and NGOs partnered with local cooperatives over the past decade to revitalize the war-battered sector. In 2022, DRC coffee exports topped $30 million, with nearly all of it coming from the Kivu provinces.

This year, however, exports are expected to plummet by over 60%, according to the National Coffee Board of Congo (ONC).

“We’re witnessing the collapse of a sector that took 15 years to rebuild,” said Emmanuel Kaseke, an agricultural economist at the University of Kinshasa. “And the long-term impact on rural economies will be devastating.”

A Long History of Conflict

The M23 (March 23 Movement) first rose to prominence in 2012, taking over parts of eastern Congo before being defeated in 2013. The group re-emerged in late 2021, and since then, its influence has expanded rapidly. Despite international pressure on Rwanda to halt support for the group, diplomatic efforts have failed to bring about a ceasefire.

The mineral-rich eastern DRC has long been plagued by armed groups, but the resurgence of M23 has drawn regional and international concern, particularly due to its impact on civilians, trade routes, and now agriculture.

Humanitarian and Market Fallout

The collapse of the coffee sector comes at a time when global demand for sustainable and traceable coffee is at an all time high. Buyers in the U.S., Germany, and Japan have paused or canceled contracts due to the insecurity, leaving cooperatives without income.

At the same time, humanitarian agencies are warning of looming food insecurity, as displaced farming communities lose both harvests and income. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that over 2.5 million people in the Kivu region now face acute hunger.

The Future Uncertain

Despite some local peace talks facilitated by the African Union and UN peacekeepers (MONUSCO), the situation remains volatile. Until security is restored, farmers like Jean-Baptiste have little hope of returning to the fields.

“We don’t need charity,” he said. “We just need peace so we can work.”

The Democratic Republic of Congo has firmly rejected Kenya’s appointment of a Consul-General to Goma, accusing Nairobi of breaching diplomatic protocol and undermining Congolese sovereignty amid ongoing conflict in the eastern region.

Kenya’s designation of Judy Kiara as Consul-General to Goma announced Friday has sparked outrage in Kinshasa, which claims the move was made without prior consultation or notification, a requirement under international diplomatic norms.

In an official statement, the Congolese Foreign Ministry said the appointment “violates established international procedures and risks being interpreted as legitimizing the occupation of Goma by M23 rebels.”

“This is not just a breach of protocol it is a political misstep,” said a senior Congolese official. “Goma is not a stable diplomatic zone. It is under the control of a rebel movement our government is actively fighting.”

Background

Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, fell under rebel control earlier this year after intense clashes between the Congolese armed forces and the M23 rebel group, which Kinshasa accuses of receiving foreign support, including from regional actors.

The M23’s takeover of Goma has been internationally condemned, and the Congolese government continues to assert its authority over the region.

Kenya’s Position

Kenyan President William Ruto included Judy Kiara’s appointment in a wider diplomatic reshuffle aimed at expanding Kenya’s influence in the Great Lakes region. Nairobi has not publicly responded to Congo’s rejection, but sources within Kenya’s foreign ministry say the appointment was made “in good faith” to support regional diplomacy and Kenyan citizens in Goma.

However, Congo sees it differently as an act of interference in a conflict zone still under military contestation.

Diplomatic Fallout

This latest dispute comes amid tense regional dynamics, with Congo already wary of neighboring countries’ involvement in eastern DRC’s volatile landscape. The African Union and East African Community are expected to be called on to mediate and clarify regional diplomatic boundaries.

As of now, the status of Kenya’s proposed diplomatic mission in Goma remains uncertain, and relations between Kinshasa and Nairobi appear strained.

Concerns over a broader regional war have grown, with troops from Uganda and Burundi also present in the area. Private talks were held last week, ahead of the planned April 9 discussions, and were seen as constructive. As a goodwill gesture, M23 was withdrawn from the mineral-rich town of Walikale.

Although M23 had promised to leave Walikale last month, they initially failed to do so, accusing the Congolese army of not upholding its own commitments. However, local officials and the army later confirmed M23’sthe town departure from.

The conflict has drawn international attention, with the United Nations and Western governments accusing Rwanda of supporting M23, a claim Rwanda denies, stating it is acting in self-defense against Congo’s army and a militia linked to the 1994 genocide.

M23 has controlled large parts of eastern Congo’s North and South Kivu provinces since 2021, including the capitals of Goma and Bukavu. The Qatari-mediated talks aim to find a peaceful resolution. M23’s withdrawal from Walikale marks a hopeful development, though the situation remains fragile, with the army and rebels still in conflict over strategic areas like Walikale, which holds valuable mineral resources.

The most recent setback happened on Monday when the M23 rebels went back on their promise to withdraw from the key town of Walikale, accusing the Congolese army of continuing attacks there.

The conflict began after the 1994 Rwandan genocide and is fueled by competition over Congo’s rich mineral resources.

Since January, when M23 stepped up its attacks, the rebels have taken control of two of eastern Congo’s largest cities, causing thousands of deaths and raising fears of a larger regional war.

Following a virtual summit on Monday, major political groups from Southern and Eastern Africa appointed five former heads of state to assist in the peace process. The appointed leaders are Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo, South Africa’s Kgalema Motlanthe, Ethiopia’s Sahle-Work Zewde, Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta, and the Central African Republic’s Catherine Samba Panza. The Congolese government stated that this new group would select a mediator to replace Angolan President Joao Lourenco, who stepped down on Monday after years of limited progress in resolving tensions between Rwanda and Congo.

Rwanda, which has faced sanctions from several Western countries for allegedly supporting the M23 rebels with weapons and troops, announced on social media that summit leaders had agreed on a political solution to address the security concerns of all involved.

Although Rwanda denies supporting the M23, it states that its military is defending itself against the Congolese army and militias hostile to Rwanda.

The conflict has increased tensions in the region, with the armies of Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi all involved in the fighting.

Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye, whose forces have fought alongside Congo’s army against the M23, warned in a BBC interview that Rwanda “has a plan to attack Burundi.” He emphasized that Burundi would not allow its people to be killed like the Congolese. Despite these statements, officials from both countries have recently met to discuss border security.

Rwanda’s government spokesperson, Yolande Makolo, responded by calling the comments “surprising,” noting that Rwandan and Burundian defense officials have been in talks to secure their shared borders.

A five-member delegation is set to travel to Luanda on Monday for discussions, following a request from Angolan authorities, according to Lawrence Kanyuka, a spokesperson for the AFC rebel alliance, which includes the M23, in a post on X.

The conflict in eastern Congo, which has plagued the region for decades, stems from the fallout of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and the battle for control over Congo’s abundant mineral resources. This year, the situation worsened as M23 made significant territorial gains, including capturing parts of Congo’s two largest cities and numerous smaller towns.

The Congolese government has reported that at least 7,000 people have died in the fighting since January, while the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs estimates that over 600,000 people have been displaced since November.

The conflict in eastern DR Congo has worsened in recent months, particularly following the M23 rebels’ takeover of key strategic locations in the region. In late January, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the crucial city of Goma, which is vital to the economic and political stability of eastern Congo. The situation further escalated in February when the rebels seized Bukavu, the second-largest city in the region.

These territorial gains by M23, along with increasing tensions between DR Congo and neighboring Rwanda, have added complexity to the conflict, raising concerns about broader regional instability.

Angola has played a pivotal role in attempting to mediate the conflict, though past efforts have faced challenges. Several peace talks have been scheduled but ultimately canceled, with previous discussions notably excluding M23 from the process. However, with the situation worsening, Angola has reiterated its commitment to facilitating meaningful negotiations between the Congolese government and the M23 rebels.

Angola’s mediation efforts aim to provide a neutral ground for both parties to come together and seek a resolution, in hopes of de-escalating the violence and finding a long-term solution to the conflict.

The Upcoming Talks

The peace talks, set for March 18, will be a crucial moment in the peace process, with the DR Congo government and M23 rebels expected to engage directly for the first time in months. The hope is that these talks will pave the way for a lasting ceasefire and address the underlying issues that have fueled the conflict, including territorial disputes, political grievances, and the involvement of neighboring countries like Rwanda.

While the success of the talks remains uncertain, the upcoming meeting in Angola represents a critical step in the effort to restore stability to the eastern DRC and ensure a peaceful future for the region.

A spokesperson for the Congolese president confirmed that the government had acknowledged Angola’s initiative. Meanwhile, a deputy spokesperson for the M23 referred to the effort as “a victory of reason” and confirmed the group’s willingness to participate in the talks.

Angola has been working to mediate a sustainable ceasefire and ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, which has been accused of supporting the Tutsi-led M23 rebel group. Rwanda, however, denies these allegations, stating that its forces are acting in self-defense against the Congolese military and militias hostile to Kigali.

Since January, the M23 rebels have taken control of two of the largest cities in eastern Congo, escalating a long-running conflict rooted in the aftermath of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and the competition for control over Congo’s rich mineral resources.

President Felix Tshisekedi of the DRC recently visited Luanda, Angola’s capital, where he met with President Joao Lourenco. According to a statement from Angola’s presidency, as a neutral mediator, Angola will soon reach out to the M23 to organize direct negotiations between the DRC and M23 representatives in Luanda.

The M23 rebel group, which is believed to have the backing of Rwanda, has made significant territorial gains in eastern Congo, an area that has long been plagued by armed groups vying for control. Tshisekedi has struggled to contain the M23’s advances, and his government’s response has drawn sharp criticism both domestically and internationally. In particular, critics have accused him of failing to protect civilians in the region and of mismanaging the complex situation involving multiple armed groups.

The discussions Kabila has initiated with opposition politicians and civil society members are seen as an attempt to gain support for a potential political shift, with some speculating that Kabila might seek to challenge Tshisekedi’s leadership in the near future. The involvement of civil society groups in the talks suggests that the conversations are not just focused on political power but also on addressing broader concerns about governance, human rights, and national unity in the face of escalating violence in the east.

This development represents a significant political shift, considering the fraught history between Kabila and Tshisekedi. The two leaders initially agreed to a power-sharing deal following the disputed 2018 elections, which saw Tshisekedi declared the winner despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud. The arrangement, which was intended to ease tensions, was marked by a fragile partnership and an awkward coexistence. However, over time, Tshisekedi began to undermine Kabila’s influence, accusing him of blocking reforms and hindering progress on vital issues such as anti-corruption measures and institutional reforms.

Relations between the two men deteriorated further as Tshisekedi increasingly consolidated his control over the government. Tshisekedi’s accusations that Kabila was obstructing reforms became more frequent, and the rift between the two men deepened. The tension reached a new high when M23 rebels, who had been gaining ground in eastern Congo, moved toward Bukavu, the country’s second-largest city in the east. At the Munich Security Conference in early 2025, Tshisekedi publicly accused Kabila of sponsoring the M23 insurgency, alleging that the former president was supporting the group to destabilize the government and regain power.

Kabila, however, remained silent in the face of these accusations until February 23, when he published an op-ed in a South African newspaper. In the article, Kabila took aim at Tshisekedi, accusing him of violating the constitution, committing human rights abuses, and pushing the country toward civil war. He argued that Tshisekedi’s leadership had failed to address the root causes of Congo’s instability and had worsened the already dire situation in the east. Kabila’s criticisms were sharp and public, marking a dramatic escalation in their already strained relationship.

Privately, sources close to Kabila suggest that the former president has been equally critical of Tshisekedi’s administration. Reports indicate that Kabila has expressed to those close to him that the current regime is nearing its end. Some sources claim that he has indicated that the time for Tshisekedi’s government to fall is imminent, signaling his intent to rally opposition forces and civil society groups to create an alternative political direction for the country.

Despite the gravity of these statements, Kabila has maintained a careful distance from direct action. His public silence on the crisis in eastern Congo during the initial stages of the M23 advance has raised questions about his intentions, with some suggesting that Kabila may have been waiting for the right moment to position himself as a figure capable of addressing the instability. The recent op-ed, which directly criticizes Tshisekedi, may be an indication that Kabila is preparing to reassert his political influence in the country.

The involvement of opposition politicians and civil society members in the ongoing talks adds another layer of complexity to Congo’s political landscape. While many of these groups have long been critical of both Kabila and Tshisekedi, the current crisis in the east has united many factions in their call for a change in leadership. Civil society groups, in particular, have expressed concerns over the growing violence and the worsening humanitarian situation in the eastern provinces, where millions have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict. Many see these discussions as an opportunity to push for reforms that could stabilize the country and address the root causes of the violence.

As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen whether these discussions will lead to a broader political realignment or if they will simply further fracture the already divided political landscape in Congo. Tshisekedi’s government is likely to view these talks as a direct challenge to its authority, and the coming weeks and months may determine whether Kabila can successfully position himself as a leader capable of leading the country out of its current crisis.

The stakes are high, as Congo faces both an internal political struggle and an external security threat. The M23 rebels’ advance in the east, combined with political instability in the capital, creates a volatile situation that could have significant implications for the country’s future. For now, the political maneuvering between Kabila, Tshisekedi, opposition groups, and civil society will be closely watched, with many hoping for a peaceful resolution to Congo’s ongoing crises. However, with tensions running high and no clear path forward, the situation remains unpredictable, and the fate of Congo’s leadership may soon be in the hands of those who are positioning themselves to shape the country’s future.