President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured 50.2% of the vote, according to near-complete results, while the opposing Patriotic Bloc trailed with just 24.2%. The result came as a surprise to many, as pre-election polls had suggested a tight race, with no clear majority expected.

The victory is likely to accelerate Moldova’s ambitions to join the EU by 2030. The small Eastern European country, located between Ukraine and EU member Romania, has long been torn between its European aspirations and historical ties to Russia.

European officials welcomed the result. The President of the European Council praised Moldovans for choosing a democratic and European path, despite ongoing efforts by Moscow to sway the election through disinformation and illicit tactics.

France, Germany, and Poland also commended the peaceful conduct of the vote, highlighting concerns over Russian interference, including vote-buying schemes and propaganda campaigns. Russia, however, denied any involvement.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky also reacted positively, stating that Moldova had resisted attempts by Moscow to cause instability.

In the capital Chisinau, 18-year-old first-time voter Ana-Maria Orsu said she was encouraged by the high turnout among young people and expressed hope for a better future.

PAS had called the vote one of the most important since Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Government officials said the election process was marred by cyberattacks, bomb threats, and online disinformation – all believed to be part of efforts to disrupt the democratic process.

Stanislav Secrieru, a top security adviser, reported attempted attacks on election infrastructure and government websites, further pointing to external interference.

On the other side, Russian officials claimed the election was manipulated by pro-European forces. A senior Russian lawmaker accused the Moldovan government of suppressing opposition voices and committing electoral fraud. He warned that Moldova was following the same path as Ukraine.

Igor Dodon, co-leader of the Patriotic Bloc and former president, called for protests outside the national parliament, alleging—without evidence—that the government planned to invalidate the vote. Authorities have expressed concern about possible unrest and are monitoring the situation closely.

Moldova, a country of around 2.4 million people, continues to face challenges including energy insecurity, high inflation (hovering near 7%), and a slow reform process. These issues have fueled dissatisfaction, which opposition groups sought to capitalize on during the campaign.

Despite the clear win for PAS, experts say the government will need to work hard to address divisions in society and communicate the benefits of EU integration more effectively to skeptical citizens. Political analyst Anastasia Pociumban described the result as a strong mandate but warned that deep social and economic divides remain.

The nation, home to 2.4 million people, has faced numerous challenges since Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine in 2022. These events have put the pro-European government to the test, as it views EU membership as essential for reducing Moscow’s influence. Recent polls indicate that the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) might lose its outright majority and could be forced to form a coalition in the 101-seat parliament.

Opposition groups, including the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc and the nominally pro-European Alternative alliance, are appealing to voters frustrated by rising prices, slow reforms, and doubts about closer ties with Europe. Meanwhile, Moscow denies any interference and accuses the Moldovan government of stirring anti-Russian sentiment for political gain.

Any coalition government may complicate President Maia Sandu’s goal of securing EU membership by 2030, a process that would require significant legislative efforts. A referendum on EU accession held earlier this year barely passed the 50% threshold.

According to a former senior official, “If we have a coalition, you can forget swift European integration given the options for … partners.”

The European Union has strongly supported Sandu and views a pro-European Moldova as crucial in countering Russian influence in the region. In August, leaders from France, Germany, and Poland visited the capital to demonstrate their backing for the country’s EU ambitions.

Moldova’s population is primarily Romanian-speaking with a substantial Russian-speaking minority. Political power has historically shifted between pro-Russian and pro-European factions. Russian troops remain stationed in a breakaway region that separated from Moldova in a conflict during the early 1990s.

President Sandu has called this election the most important in the country’s history. In a recent address, she warned that Russia is investing hundreds of millions of euros and recruiting hundreds of individuals to disrupt the vote.

She emphasised that “Today, with utmost seriousness, I tell you: our sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and European future are in danger.”

In response, Moldovan authorities have intensified investigations into illegal political funding. Security forces recently detained 74 individuals linked to alleged Russian-backed attempts to incite unrest. Officials reported that Russian intelligence has been training Moldovan nationals in Serbia on protest methods.

Igor Dodon, former president and co-leader of the Patriotic Bloc, claimed members of his group were being targeted by the government’s crackdown.

He accused the ruling party of intimidation and silencing opposition voices, saying: “The criminal PAS regime is trying to intimidate us, frighten the people, and silence us.”

Last month, controversial businessman Ilan Shor, sanctioned by Western countries for alleged ties to Russia, openly promised monthly payments to citizens who participate in anti-government demonstrations.

The election comes amid ongoing economic difficulties largely driven by the war in Ukraine and an energy crisis caused by Russia cutting critical gas supplies. Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, has had to rely on costlier energy imports from Romania. Though inflation has eased from double-digit figures last year, it remains around 7%, fuelling public dissatisfaction.

“People don’t see, in their daily lives, the benefits of EU accession,” noted Anastasia Pociumban of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Corruption remains a persistent issue, and reforms in key sectors, such as the judiciary, have advanced slowly. PAS gained power in 2021 promising better governance and anti-corruption measures, but economic hardships and governmental weaknesses have been exploited by pro-Russian propaganda aimed at various voter groups, according to researcher Eugen Muravschi from the WatchDog.MD think tank.

“The main goal is to mobilise pro-Russian voters, to demotivate and demobilise pro-European voters, and to create confusion among the undecided voters.”

Moldova’s sizeable diaspora is expected to influence the election’s outcome, as voters living abroad, who typically support pro-European parties, are not included in local polling data.