Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, once seen as the frontrunner just months ago, suffered a major setback, losing his seat in Carleton, Ontario, to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy.

This turnaround comes after the Liberals had been trailing badly in polls earlier in the year, facing a 20-point deficit before longtime leader Justin Trudeau stepped down and Trump began issuing threats involving tariffs and even suggesting Canada could become a U.S. state.

Political analysts attributed the Liberal resurgence to a combination of voter backlash against Trump’s rhetoric, a shift among undecided and center-left voters, and Trudeau’s departure making way for Carney, a respected former central bank governor.

“It was the anti-Conservative mood, the Trump effect, and Trudeau stepping aside that helped consolidate support behind the Liberals,” said one polling expert.

Conservatives Admit Defeat

Carney acknowledged the difficulties ahead, calling for unity and preparedness for sacrifices in the coming months. Meanwhile, Poilievre conceded the loss and affirmed that his party would continue to hold the government accountable.

The Liberal win drew congratulations from international leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Canada’s strong ties with Europe and emphasized ongoing collaboration in global forums. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also welcomed the result, highlighting areas of joint interest such as trade, defense, and investment.

Carney has pledged a firm stance against U.S. trade aggression and committed to reducing Canada’s economic dependence on its southern neighbor. Despite the overall win, the Conservatives still showed notable resilience, maintaining substantial support across many regions.

With the Liberals falling short of a full majority, Carney may seek support from the New Democratic Party and the Greens to maintain power. However, experts warn that such a coalition would be unstable and vulnerable to confidence votes and by-elections.

Trump’s Comments Fuel Nationalist Surge

Trump’s recent remarks sparked a wave of national pride among Canadian voters. He had proposed severe tariffs on Canadian goods and suggested annexation, positioning himself as a campaign issue in the final days. These comments helped boost Carney’s profile as a steady hand capable of managing international tensions.

Carney used his economic credentials to reassure voters, while Poilievre focused on domestic issues like inflation, crime, and housing. In a social media message, Trump repeated his vision of Canada becoming a U.S. state, promising economic benefits and military protection if such a change were made.

The controversy over Trump’s remarks also prompted a shift among voters from smaller parties like the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois toward the Liberals. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and announced plans to resign as party leader.

The province’s 43 federal ridings are expected to play a decisive role in the outcome of Monday’s election. While Carney’s Liberal Party holds a clear lead in Ontario and Quebec, British Columbia remains a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives.

“B.C. is a lot like Ontario’s 905 region—densely populated, diverse, and politically fluid,” said Richard Johnston, a retired political science professor. “It could be the tipping point between a majority government and one that must rely on support from other parties.”

Carney addressed supporters in Victoria, a New Democratic Party (NDP) stronghold, urging voters to back his vision regardless of past political affiliations.

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, continue to dominate the Prairie provinces and are appealing to voters in B.C. with a tough-on-crime agenda. Poilievre, campaigning in southern Ontario on Wednesday, received the endorsement of the Toronto Police Association and announced plans to clear encampments from public spaces.

Polling released this week shows the Liberals leading nationally with 44.1% support, followed by the Conservatives at 38.5%. The NDP trails at 7.7%. In B.C., the race between the two leading parties is effectively tied, with the NDP’s slipping numbers potentially benefiting both.

Sanjay Jeram, a political science lecturer at Simon Fraser University, described B.C. as “one of the hardest provinces to read,” noting a high number of ridings remain too close to call.

Both analysts highlighted that concerns over U.S. policy, particularly tariffs and aggressive rhetoric, have also shaped voter priorities across the province and the country.

The election will determine the makeup of the 343-seat House of Commons, with the latest polls suggesting a potential Liberal majority if trends hold.