Experts warn the conflict could reverse recent progress in stabilizing food costs, which were already under pressure from previous global crises.

Fertilizer shortages raise alarm

Fertilizer supplies, critical for modern agriculture, have been severely disrupted due to the conflict and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices for key fertilizers have surged 30–40 percent in recent weeks.

This threatens crop yields for staples such as wheat, corn and rice. Countries in Africa and parts of Asia including Kenya, Somalia and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on imports from the Gulf region.

Energy crisis adds pressure to food systems

Rising oil and gas prices caused by attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure are further increasing the cost of food production, transportation and storage.

Higher fuel costs make it more expensive to operate farm machinery, transport goods and maintain cold storage, all contributing to higher food prices globally.

Developing nations face the greatest risk

Economists and humanitarian organizations warn that developing countries will bear the brunt of the crisis. Many are still recovering from previous food shocks and lack the fiscal resources to subsidize food or support farmers.

Rising prices could increase hunger, strain humanitarian operations and heighten the risk of social unrest in vulnerable regions.

Global markets respond to uncertainty

Markets are reacting to the conflict, with central banks warning that rising energy and food costs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth.

The European Central Bank and other institutions have highlighted the uncertainty caused by the war, noting that higher energy and food prices complicate economic stability efforts.

Danger of prolonged disruption

Experts warn that the longer the conflict continues, the higher the risk of long-term damage to global food systems.

Disruptions to fertilizer supplies during key planting seasons could reduce agricultural output later in the year, causing sustained price increases and potential shortages.

Uncertain outlook

Governments and international organizations are preparing for the possibility of a sustained crisis. Emergency measures, including financial aid and food assistance programs, are being considered to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable populations.

However, without a de-escalation of the conflict, the world could face another major food-price surge one that disproportionately affects the poorest countries.

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The warning came as Iranian forces targeted multiple commercial ships in the Gulf on Wednesday, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. At least three merchant vessels were struck by projectiles, with one vessel catching fire and crews evacuated.

Iranian military officials said the attacks were part of a broader campaign aimed at disrupting oil flows to adversaries and their allies.

“Get ready for oil at $200 per barrel,” said Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command. “The price of oil depends on regional security, which you have destabilized.”

Shipping Route at the Center of Global Energy Trade

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, handles about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making it the single most important maritime corridor for energy supplies.

Since the conflict intensified nearly two weeks ago, commercial shipping through the narrow waterway has slowed dramatically. Iran has reportedly laid naval mines in the strait and warned that vessels linked to the United States, Israel or their allies could be considered legitimate targets.

Maritime security agencies say at least 14 vessels have been struck since the crisis began, highlighting the growing risk to global trade and shipping.

War Escalation in the Middle East

The current escalation follows joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, which triggered retaliatory attacks by Tehran across the Middle East. Military exchanges have since expanded to include missile strikes, drone attacks and maritime operations.

The conflict has already resulted in thousands of casualties across Iran and Lebanon, according to regional reports, while both sides continue to signal that the fighting may persist.

Israeli officials have stated their campaign will continue indefinitely until Iran’s offensive capabilities and regional influence are dismantled.

Oil Markets on Edge

Energy markets have reacted sharply to the disruption.

Global crude prices surged earlier this week to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest level in several years, before easing to around $90 as investors speculated that the conflict might be contained.

However, analysts warn that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks since the oil crises of the 1970s.

“If the waterway remains closed or dangerous for shipping, the world could lose access to millions of barrels of oil per day,” energy analysts say.

Emergency Energy Measures Considered

In response to the crisis, the International Energy Agency is reportedly considering a record release of up to 400 million barrels from global strategic oil reserves to stabilize markets and maintain supply.

Such a move would be the largest coordinated release of emergency reserves in history, though experts say it would cover only a few weeks of disrupted shipments.

Meanwhile, governments and shipping companies are reassessing maritime security in the Gulf, with discussions ongoing about possible naval escorts for commercial tankers.

Global Economic Impact

A surge in oil prices toward $200 per barrel could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, including:

• Rising fuel and transportation costs
• Increased inflation worldwide
• Supply chain disruptions
• Higher electricity and heating prices

For oil-importing nations, the crisis could also strain economic growth and increase pressure on central banks already dealing with inflation.

Outlook

Despite diplomatic efforts, there are no clear signs of de-escalation. Iran has vowed to continue attacks on targets linked to its adversaries, while the United States and Israel say their military operations will persist until strategic objectives are met.

With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under threat and regional tensions escalating, energy markets and governments worldwide are bracing for further volatility.

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