Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on the sidelines of the G7 Summit this weekend, reaffirming the growing partnership between the two nations.

The meeting focused on strengthening cooperation in several key areas, including wildfire management, emerging technologies, and bilateral trade and investment.

Prime Minister Carney praised South Africa’s leadership on climate resilience and emphasized Canada’s readiness to share expertise in wildfire suppression and response, an increasingly urgent issue for both nations.

“We are building a partnership rooted in shared challenges and shared opportunities from advanced technology to environmental security,” said Carney.

President Ramaphosa echoed these sentiments, highlighting South Africa’s interest in attracting Canadian investment in green energy and tech innovation. The leaders also discussed enhanced academic and scientific exchanges between institutions in both countries.

The meeting reflects a broader push by both Canada and South Africa to diversify international alliances and deepen South–North cooperation on global development issues.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, once seen as the frontrunner just months ago, suffered a major setback, losing his seat in Carleton, Ontario, to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy.

This turnaround comes after the Liberals had been trailing badly in polls earlier in the year, facing a 20-point deficit before longtime leader Justin Trudeau stepped down and Trump began issuing threats involving tariffs and even suggesting Canada could become a U.S. state.

Political analysts attributed the Liberal resurgence to a combination of voter backlash against Trump’s rhetoric, a shift among undecided and center-left voters, and Trudeau’s departure making way for Carney, a respected former central bank governor.

“It was the anti-Conservative mood, the Trump effect, and Trudeau stepping aside that helped consolidate support behind the Liberals,” said one polling expert.

Conservatives Admit Defeat

Carney acknowledged the difficulties ahead, calling for unity and preparedness for sacrifices in the coming months. Meanwhile, Poilievre conceded the loss and affirmed that his party would continue to hold the government accountable.

The Liberal win drew congratulations from international leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Canada’s strong ties with Europe and emphasized ongoing collaboration in global forums. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also welcomed the result, highlighting areas of joint interest such as trade, defense, and investment.

Carney has pledged a firm stance against U.S. trade aggression and committed to reducing Canada’s economic dependence on its southern neighbor. Despite the overall win, the Conservatives still showed notable resilience, maintaining substantial support across many regions.

With the Liberals falling short of a full majority, Carney may seek support from the New Democratic Party and the Greens to maintain power. However, experts warn that such a coalition would be unstable and vulnerable to confidence votes and by-elections.

Trump’s Comments Fuel Nationalist Surge

Trump’s recent remarks sparked a wave of national pride among Canadian voters. He had proposed severe tariffs on Canadian goods and suggested annexation, positioning himself as a campaign issue in the final days. These comments helped boost Carney’s profile as a steady hand capable of managing international tensions.

Carney used his economic credentials to reassure voters, while Poilievre focused on domestic issues like inflation, crime, and housing. In a social media message, Trump repeated his vision of Canada becoming a U.S. state, promising economic benefits and military protection if such a change were made.

The controversy over Trump’s remarks also prompted a shift among voters from smaller parties like the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois toward the Liberals. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and announced plans to resign as party leader.

“Who is ready for change in Canada?!” he shouted, energizing the crowd.

Poilievre, a seasoned 45-year-old politician, reminisced about the 1970s when, he claimed, Canadians could pay off a mortgage in seven years—far faster than the many decades it now takes in certain cities.

While the Conservative Party had a 20-point lead in the polls just months ago, they are now expected to lose Monday’s election to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, largely due to Carney’s critical stance on U.S. President Donald Trump.

However, Poilievre’s emphasis on the cost of living has resonated with younger voters, particularly men. A recent poll by Nanos on April 24 revealed that 49.3% of voters aged 18-34 favored the Conservatives, while only 30% supported the Liberals. Among all age groups, the Liberals still led 42.9% to 39.3%. The poll also showed that 45.5% of men, across all ages, preferred the Conservatives compared to 36.7% for the Liberals.

Conducted from April 21 to 23, the survey included 1,307 Canadians and has a margin of error of ±2.7%, 19 times out of 20.

For younger Canadians, Poilievre symbolizes a change from nearly a decade of Liberal leadership under Justin Trudeau, which Poilievre often criticizes as a “lost decade.” Their main concerns are financial—how to afford housing and living expenses, rather than international relations.

Carney, who took office in March, has distanced himself from Trudeau’s policies.

“I’ve been through the struggle of paying for groceries, covering bills, and trying to save up to start a family,” said Joshua Dwyer, 24, a journalism student at Toronto Metropolitan University, who was attending his third Poilievre rally. “It doesn’t work under the Liberal government. We’ve had a decade to try, and it’s not working.”

Polls have tightened in recent days, and Poilievre has been drawing large crowds. Although such rallies and voter intentions do not always translate to election victories under Canada’s electoral system, turnout among young voters, especially in Ontario and Quebec, could be crucial. The youth vote could determine if Poilievre pulls off a surprise victory or if the Liberals secure a majority, potentially relying on support from other parties. Historically, young people are less likely to vote. To engage them, Conservative youth TikTok accounts are encouraging younger conservatives to convince their parents to vote for Poilievre.

The Liberals have tried to draw comparisons between Trump’s populist style and Poilievre’s approach, which includes proposals to cut government funding for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and dismantle homeless camps in urban areas. Additionally, Poilievre’s campaign has kept a low profile on Trump, mentioning him only once during his Vaughan rally.

Poilievre’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Both Carney and Poilievre have made housing a central issue, with each advocating for the removal of the federal sales tax on new homes. Poilievre’s approach has garnered support from some voters, like Cameron Pinto, a 24-year-old paramedic student at the rally. Pinto expressed more confidence in Poilievre’s stance, believing less government intervention would allow the private sector to drive new housing developments.

“I’m here because I believe the mismanagement over the past 10 years has caused a lot of the issues we face now,” said Pinto.

Carney, 60, brings a wealth of experience from his time managing central banks in Canada and the UK during the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit—events that occurred when many Gen Z voters were still children.

Young Canadians’ frustration mirrors similar trends seen in the United States and Europe, where younger generations have also leaned towards Conservative politics in recent years.

“There’s a sense among young adults that the opportunities their parents had are no longer available to them,” said Paul Thomas, emeritus professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

Whether this shift will have lasting significance is still uncertain, according to Thomas. “They haven’t developed the voting habits of older generations, who see it as more of a duty.”

The province’s 43 federal ridings are expected to play a decisive role in the outcome of Monday’s election. While Carney’s Liberal Party holds a clear lead in Ontario and Quebec, British Columbia remains a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives.

“B.C. is a lot like Ontario’s 905 region—densely populated, diverse, and politically fluid,” said Richard Johnston, a retired political science professor. “It could be the tipping point between a majority government and one that must rely on support from other parties.”

Carney addressed supporters in Victoria, a New Democratic Party (NDP) stronghold, urging voters to back his vision regardless of past political affiliations.

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, continue to dominate the Prairie provinces and are appealing to voters in B.C. with a tough-on-crime agenda. Poilievre, campaigning in southern Ontario on Wednesday, received the endorsement of the Toronto Police Association and announced plans to clear encampments from public spaces.

Polling released this week shows the Liberals leading nationally with 44.1% support, followed by the Conservatives at 38.5%. The NDP trails at 7.7%. In B.C., the race between the two leading parties is effectively tied, with the NDP’s slipping numbers potentially benefiting both.

Sanjay Jeram, a political science lecturer at Simon Fraser University, described B.C. as “one of the hardest provinces to read,” noting a high number of ridings remain too close to call.

Both analysts highlighted that concerns over U.S. policy, particularly tariffs and aggressive rhetoric, have also shaped voter priorities across the province and the country.

The election will determine the makeup of the 343-seat House of Commons, with the latest polls suggesting a potential Liberal majority if trends hold.