While Trump did not detail what form the consequences might take, he has previously indicated that economic penalties could be imposed if Friday’s summit with Putin fails to make progress.

Trump’s remarks came after a virtual meeting that brought together European leaders and Zelenskyy. Their joint call was seen as a coordinated effort to ensure Ukraine’s interests are not sidelined ahead of the Alaska summit. There have been concerns that the talks could result in territorial concessions at Ukraine’s expense.

Despite ongoing demands from Ukraine and its European allies, Russia has remained firm on its position, unchanged since Putin outlined it in June 2024.

When asked directly if Russia would face penalties for rejecting peace efforts, Trump replied, “Yes, they will.” Pressed on whether these would include tariffs or sanctions, he declined to give specifics, saying only that the response would be “very severe.”

Trump also emphasised that the purpose of the upcoming meeting is to lay the groundwork for a broader negotiation. If the first meeting goes well, he said he’s prepared to move quickly to a second, involving both Zelenskyy and Putin.

“I’d like the second meeting to happen almost immediately,” Trump stated, though no timeline has been set.

Red Lines and European Support

The earlier virtual discussion, organised by Germany, was aimed at presenting a united front and defining non-negotiable points ahead of the Alaska meeting.

Describing the call as “very friendly,” Trump said it included both Zelenskyy and European heads of state. French President Emmanuel Macron noted that Trump agreed any decisions about Ukrainian territory must include Ukraine’s leadership. Zelenskyy also confirmed that Trump backed the idea of long-term security guarantees for Ukraine once the conflict ends.

Macron said Trump made clear that securing a ceasefire in Alaska was the U.S. priority. He also reinforced the principle that any discussion of Ukraine’s borders must involve Zelenskyy directly.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasised that no peace deal should legitimise the use of force to change borders. He called for increased pressure on Moscow if Friday’s talks do not yield results.

“If Russia doesn’t shift its position in Alaska, both the U.S. and Europe must step up the pressure,” Merz said. “Trump understands this well, and our conversation was very constructive.”

High-Stakes Negotiation

The Trump-Putin meeting will address the war that has raged for more than three years, making it the largest European conflict since World War II. Trump has previously hinted that ending the war might involve territorial compromises, a stance that has raised concerns in Kyiv.

Recently, Russian troops made significant advances in eastern Ukraine, likely aimed at increasing leverage ahead of the talks. These gains could strengthen Russia’s bargaining position and raise fears that a peace deal might lock in those gains.

Zelenskyy, who traveled to Berlin to take part in the day’s virtual meetings, told allies that Putin’s peace talk is a bluff. “He’s trying to ramp up pressure ahead of Alaska. Russia wants to show it can overrun the entire country,” Zelenskyy said.

A source familiar with the discussions noted that the U.S. and allies have already begun considering possible cities to host a future three-way summit, contingent on progress in Alaska.

While cautious not to criticise Trump publicly, European leaders have consistently insisted that Ukraine must be at the table and that no decisions should be made without its full involvement.

Trump’s agreement to hold the Alaska summit followed a period of tension with Putin over stalled diplomatic efforts. He said his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, made meaningful strides in Moscow, prompting the decision to move forward.

Public sentiment in Ukraine reflects a desire for peace, with a recent Gallup poll showing 69% support for a negotiated end to the conflict. However, most Ukrainians oppose any settlement that would require major territorial concessions.

Meanwhile, Moscow’s position remains unchanged. Russian officials reiterated demands that Ukraine withdraw from four contested regions and abandon its pursuit of NATO membership as prerequisites for any ceasefire.

Trump voiced his anger over Putin’s criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s credibility and warned that he might impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil imports. However, he later reassured me that progress is being made, even if it’s slow.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Moscow continues to engage with Washington, with Putin remaining open to communication with Trump. He emphasized that Russia is focused on rebuilding strained U.S.-Russia relations and exploring potential solutions for the Ukraine conflict, although this process is complex and time-consuming. Peskov noted that a call between the two leaders could be arranged if needed.

Trump, who wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, reiterated his goal of ending the war in Ukraine and warned of the risk of it escalating into a global conflict between the U.S. and Russia if left unresolved. He emphasized his desire to end the bloodshed and stop both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers from dying. Additionally, he stated that if Putin didn’t cooperate, he would impose tariffs on Russian oil.

During a meeting with Trump, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb suggested setting a deadline for a ceasefire to ensure its success, pointing out that Trump is the only person Putin respects enough to broker peace. Trump’s frustration with the lack of progress, particularly regarding a ceasefire, was evident.

Since taking office, Trump has adopted a more conciliatory approach to Russia, which has raised concerns among Western allies. His frustration was clear when he said that if Russia didn’t reach an agreement to stop the violence, he would impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil, potentially affecting countries like China and India, which purchase most of Russia’s oil.

Talks about possible cooperation on rare earth metals and other projects between Russia and the U.S. have begun, but there are still no clear details.

The Kremlin views the peace process as slow-moving. Peskov stated that no concrete results have been achieved yet and that Russia has rejected a U.S. proposal for a full 30-day ceasefire, with the possibility of a partial ceasefire also complicated by the conditions set by the Kremlin. Trump, who promised to quickly end the war, is growing frustrated with the lack of progress.

Although Trump criticized Putin over his comments on Zelenskyy, Peskov reaffirmed that Putin remains open to discussions with the U.S. president. Both countries are bracing for intensified military actions in the coming months, with Putin recently ordering the drafting of 160,000 conscripts into the Russian military.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Russian attacks are ongoing, underlining the brutal nature of the conflict. He called for more international pressure on Russia to force it into negotiations, including the imposition of additional sanctions. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas echoed this view, stating that Russia is not genuinely interested in peace and that more pressure is needed.

The conflict persists, with continued attacks, including a recent drone strike on Kharkiv, and Ukrainian forces targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported shooting down numerous Ukrainian drones. Both sides continue to face significant obstacles, and a resolution remains elusive.

In the aftermath of the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, which led to the ceasefire agreement, President Zelensky emphasized the importance of reducing hostilities on both sides. Speaking to reporters, Zelensky welcomed the idea of halting attacks on critical energy infrastructure, acknowledging the potential for this move to de-escalate the violence and bring Ukraine and Russia closer to a peaceful resolution.

Zelensky’s Diplomatic Push

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, President Zelensky immediately reached out to key European leaders to discuss the potential implications of the ceasefire and the broader peace talks. According to Ukrainian officials, Zelensky spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both of whom have been instrumental in facilitating peace efforts in Ukraine.

During these conversations, Zelensky sought to ensure that Ukraine’s interests remained protected as the ceasefire negotiations unfold. He reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to defending its sovereignty while also recognizing the need for dialogue as part of the path toward a peaceful resolution.

A Shift Toward Diplomacy?

The U.S. proposal to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure marks a significant shift in the diplomatic landscape of the war. For months, both sides have engaged in relentless military campaigns, with energy infrastructure being a central focus of Russian airstrikes on Ukraine and reciprocal attacks on Russian energy facilities. The U.S. move to halt these attacks may represent an attempt to break the cycle of violence and pave the way for broader peace talks.

For Zelensky, this represents an opportunity to take a more measured approach while still maintaining Ukraine’s military readiness. “We have always sought peace through strength, but we are ready to explore all options that will protect our people and secure a lasting peace,” Zelensky stated in his remarks following the phone calls with Macron and Scholz.

Europe’s Role in Shaping Peace

Both Macron and Scholz have emphasized their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and security while also engaging with Russia in peace talks. As pivotal European allies, their involvement will be critical in shaping the trajectory of the ongoing ceasefire and potential peace negotiations. Macron, in particular, has been vocal about the need for a diplomatic solution that addresses both Ukrainian and Russian concerns.

Zelensky’s consultations with these leaders indicate that Europe remains a key player in the peace process, balancing Ukraine’s desire for full territorial integrity with the necessity of engaging in international talks with Russia.

What’s Next?

As the 30-day ceasefire begins, all eyes will be on the forthcoming peace talks. While the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure is a positive sign, many questions remain about the broader terms of the ceasefire and whether both sides can reach a long-term solution.

International experts warn that the ceasefire is fragile and that any further escalation could derail the ongoing discussions. However, the continued involvement of European and U.S. leaders could help maintain momentum for negotiations.

For now, the world watches as leaders on both sides prepare for the next stage of talks, hoping that this moment of reduced violence can lead to a more permanent peace.