Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, is increasingly surrounded by a shrinking circle of trusted aides following a string of Israeli airstrikes that have claimed the lives of several top military and intelligence officials. The loss of these key figures, many of whom were central to both internal and external strategic planning, has raised concerns over the possibility of critical missteps in Iran’s decision-making.
According to individuals familiar with the inner workings of Khamenei’s leadership, the absence of senior figures could undermine Iran’s stability and its defense posture. One source who regularly takes part in high-level meetings warned that the potential for miscalculation is “extremely dangerous.”
Among those killed in recent days are some of the most senior leaders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, including the overall commander Hossein Salami, aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh—who oversaw Iran’s ballistic missile program—and intelligence head Mohammad Kazemi. These men were not just military leaders but also part of a core advisory group of roughly 15 to 20 individuals who shaped key decisions alongside Khamenei. This group included top Guards commanders, senior clerics, and seasoned politicians.
This advisory body convenes on a flexible, issue-based basis—called together by Khamenei’s office to address pressing matters. Members of the circle are marked by their unwavering loyalty to both Khamenei personally and to the principles of the Islamic Republic.
Having endured both imprisonment prior to the 1979 revolution and a near-fatal bomb attack before taking power in 1989, Khamenei remains deeply committed to Iran’s theocratic system and harbors a longstanding mistrust of Western powers. Under the country’s constitution, he holds ultimate authority over the military, judiciary, and other key appointments, including the power to declare war.
Although Khamenei makes all final decisions, insiders say he pays close attention to counsel from his advisers, listening carefully to differing perspectives before acting. One individual who attends these meetings described him as “very cautious but also extremely stubborn”—traits seen as key to his decades-long grip on power.
According to regional analysts, Khamenei is highly attuned to the cost-benefit calculations that ultimately center on preserving the regime. His emphasis on survival has been tested repeatedly, most notably through waves of domestic unrest in 1999, 2009, and 2022, when the Revolutionary Guards and affiliated Basij militia were deployed to suppress protests.
Though these forces have been effective in restoring order, years of heavy sanctions have taken a toll on Iran’s economy, potentially threatening internal stability in the long term. Now, tensions with Israel have added another layer of volatility, as Israel has targeted both nuclear infrastructure and high-ranking personnel, prompting Iranian missile retaliation.
Despite the recent losses, several influential figures remain active in Khamenei’s inner orbit. Key political, economic, and diplomatic advisers continue to operate, often assigned specific responsibilities across Iran’s institutional framework. This enables Khamenei to directly shape initiatives ranging from major military decisions to relatively minor policy actions.
Over the past two decades, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has played an increasingly central role in this process. Viewed by some as a possible successor, Mojtaba has cultivated deep ties within the Revolutionary Guards, giving him considerable influence across the state’s security and political networks.
Other prominent aides include Ali Asghar Hejazi, a senior official within the Supreme Leader’s office with major sway over intelligence matters; Mohammad Golpayegani, who heads Khamenei’s office; and veteran diplomats like Ali Akbar Velayati, Kamal Kharazi, and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, all of whom remain close confidants.
Nonetheless, the elimination of top Guards commanders has dealt a severe blow to a military institution that Khamenei has positioned at the heart of the Islamic Republic’s power structure since 1989. Unlike the regular army, which falls under the defense ministry, the Guards report directly to the Supreme Leader and enjoy preferential access to weapons and funding, giving them outsized influence in both domestic and regional affairs.
With Israel intensifying its campaign against Iran and its allies in the region, Khamenei now faces one of the gravest challenges of his leadership. The erosion of his senior advisory network comes at a time when Iran’s broader alliance—often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance”—is also under siege. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, once closely allied with Tehran, was killed in an Israeli strike last September, while Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was removed from power by rebels in December.
As pressure mounts from both within and outside Iran, Khamenei’s ability to navigate the crisis may depend heavily on the remaining loyalists around him—and whether they can fill the void left by those who are now gone.
