President Trump says there’s a “good chance” of a trade agreement with the EU amid ongoing issues over fairness and market access

EDINBURGH, Scotland — Sunday saw a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort, where both leaders affirmed a 50‑50 chance of reaching a trade deal in the coming days.

Trump opened the meeting by identifying labelled “three or four” major sticking points, with “fairness” emerging as the core issue. He said: “We’ve had a hard time with trade with Europe very hard time.”

According to Trump, recent deals with Japan and other partners established a precedent tariff rate of 15%, which he expects the EU to match. He maintained firmly: “Tariffs won’t be lower than 15% that’s not negotiable.”

Von der Leyen responded by underscoring how critical the partnership is: both the U.S. and EU account for nearly 40% of global GDP and form the world’s largest trade corridor. She also acknowledged that leadership level decisions could lock in trade stability for years.

Negotiation Context:

• Risk of escalation: Trump had previously threatened broad 30% tariffs on EU imports covering autos, industrial goods, and more set to take effect on August 1 if talks failed.

• EU stakes: Brussels originally pushed for a zero-for-zero tariff deal but is poised to accept a 15% baseline levy, while steel and aluminum tariffs would remain at 50%, with possible quotas allowing duty free access.

Why This Matters:

A breakthrough would avert a looming trade war between the world’s two largest economies, delivering critical certainty to multinational businesses, investors, and industries threatened by escalating tariffs. Both sides emphasize that resolution now could shape trade relations for the next several years.

Trump framed the deal as potentially “the biggest of all the deals” his administration has made surpassing recent agreements with Japan, Britain, and others.

Next Steps:

Senior trade officials including U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will continue final negotiations in the coming days. Final sign off from both parties is required before tariffs become effective.

If talks collapse, U.S. tariffs will rise as scheduled and the EU has prepared retaliatory tariffs covering over $100 billion in American exports, ranging from autos to agricultural products.