Russia says it could increase diesel exports to between 3 million and 3.5 million metric tonnes per month by the end of the year, potentially exceeding the volumes announced by US President Donald Trump under a recently agreed fuel supply arrangement.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that Moscow had the capacity to raise exports and return shipments towards pre-crisis levels, despite disruptions to its refining industry.
“We will see how the situation develops further, but Russia has the capacity to increase diesel fuel exports,” Novak said in comments broadcast on Russian state television.
Trump’s Diesel Deal With Moscow
Trump announced on October 9 that Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets immediately, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and a further 1 million tonnes thereafter.
The US administration has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel shipments in an effort to increase available supplies and address soaring diesel prices, which have placed pressure on American truckers, farmers and other businesses.
However, the agreement has drawn criticism from Ukraine and US lawmakers, who argue that allowing additional Russian energy exports could generate revenue for Moscow while its war against Ukraine continues.
Ukrainian Attacks Have Hit Russian Refining Capacity
Russia’s diesel exports have declined following Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and restrictions imposed by Moscow to protect domestic fuel supplies.
Before the refinery attacks intensified in 2024 and 2025, Russia exported more than 3 million metric tonnes of diesel monthly. Despite restrictions on overseas sales, shipments to Central Asian countries have continued under government agreements.
Novak said additional Russian supplies could help balance global diesel supply and demand as energy markets face pressure from geopolitical conflicts and disrupted trade flows.
Impact on Global Fuel Prices Remains Uncertain
The prospect of increased Russian exports has added another factor to an already volatile energy market. Additional diesel supplies could ease shortages and moderate prices, although analysts have questioned whether the announced shipments will be sufficient to produce a sustained reduction.
The arrangement also presents a diplomatic challenge for Washington, which has previously used sanctions to restrict Russian energy revenues following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Whether Russia can achieve its proposed monthly export levels will depend on refinery recovery, domestic demand and the evolution of the conflict. For now, the announcement signals Moscow’s intention to expand its role in global fuel markets while Washington seeks relief from high energy costs.
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