Latest poll puts National narrowly ahead of Labour, with smaller parties potentially holding the balance of power in Saturday’s general election.

New Zealand’s ruling National Party and centre-left opposition Labour Party are virtually tied in the final days before the country’s November 7 general election, according to the latest opinion poll released on November 3.

The final 1News Verian poll places Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party at 30%, just one percentage point ahead of Labour, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins, at 29%. The figures point to a closely contested election, with neither major party appearing to have a clear path to governing alone.

The poll shows Labour gaining two percentage points, while National increased by one point. The Green Party also gained one point to reach 16%.

Smaller Parties Could Decide the Next Government

The results suggest that smaller political parties could once again determine who forms New Zealand’s next government under its mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system.

National’s current coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, recorded declines of two percentage points each, falling to 10% and 8% respectively.

The centrist Opportunity Party remained steady at 6%, potentially giving it a decisive role in post-election coalition negotiations.

Based on the poll’s seat projections, the National-led bloc would hold approximately 58 seats, while the Labour-led grouping could secure between 56 and 60 seats, depending on the outcome of Māori electorate contests. Neither side appears to have enough support to govern without additional partners.

Cost of Living and the Economy Dominate Campaign

The election campaign has been shaped by concerns over living costs, economic performance, employment, healthcare and public services.

Luxon and National have focused on economic management, restoring a budget surplus and strengthening household savings. Labour, meanwhile, has campaigned on reducing living costs, improving healthcare and transport, and investing in housing, jobs and public infrastructure.

The latest poll also indicates that economic optimism is improving, with 49% of respondents expecting the economy to improve over the next 12 months.

A Crucial Test for Luxon and Hipkins

The election represents a major political test for Luxon as he seeks another term leading the National-led coalition. For Hipkins, it offers an opportunity to return Labour to government after its defeat in 2023.

With undecided voters declining and more than one million people already having voted, the final days of campaigning could prove decisive.

The outcome on November 7 will determine not only which party leads the next government, but also which smaller parties gain the influence to shape New Zealand’s political and economic direction.

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