The escalating war in Iran is threatening a new global food-price shock, with developing countries expected to be hit hardest as energy and fertilizer supply chains face severe disruption.

Experts warn the conflict could reverse recent progress in stabilizing food costs, which were already under pressure from previous global crises.

Fertilizer shortages raise alarm

Fertilizer supplies, critical for modern agriculture, have been severely disrupted due to the conflict and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices for key fertilizers have surged 30–40 percent in recent weeks.

This threatens crop yields for staples such as wheat, corn and rice. Countries in Africa and parts of Asia including Kenya, Somalia and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on imports from the Gulf region.

Energy crisis adds pressure to food systems

Rising oil and gas prices caused by attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure are further increasing the cost of food production, transportation and storage.

Higher fuel costs make it more expensive to operate farm machinery, transport goods and maintain cold storage, all contributing to higher food prices globally.

Developing nations face the greatest risk

Economists and humanitarian organizations warn that developing countries will bear the brunt of the crisis. Many are still recovering from previous food shocks and lack the fiscal resources to subsidize food or support farmers.

Rising prices could increase hunger, strain humanitarian operations and heighten the risk of social unrest in vulnerable regions.

Global markets respond to uncertainty

Markets are reacting to the conflict, with central banks warning that rising energy and food costs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth.

The European Central Bank and other institutions have highlighted the uncertainty caused by the war, noting that higher energy and food prices complicate economic stability efforts.

Danger of prolonged disruption

Experts warn that the longer the conflict continues, the higher the risk of long-term damage to global food systems.

Disruptions to fertilizer supplies during key planting seasons could reduce agricultural output later in the year, causing sustained price increases and potential shortages.

Uncertain outlook

Governments and international organizations are preparing for the possibility of a sustained crisis. Emergency measures, including financial aid and food assistance programs, are being considered to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable populations.

However, without a de-escalation of the conflict, the world could face another major food-price surge one that disproportionately affects the poorest countries.

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