Referendum Could Reshape Government Ahead of December Elections
Guinea-Bissau is set to hold a constitutional referendum on August 30, with voters being asked to approve reforms that would significantly strengthen the powers of the presidency and reshape the country’s electoral system ahead of general elections scheduled for December.
The referendum comes after the military seized power in November 2025, just one day before electoral authorities were due to announce results from a presidential election. The military subsequently established a transitional government, placing the country under military-led rule.
President Would Gain Greater Executive Authority
Under the proposed constitution, the president would gain the power to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, chair the Council of Ministers and create or abolish government ministries.
The president would also be given authority to dissolve parliament in circumstances defined as a grave political crisis and to dismiss the government under certain conditions.
The proposed reforms would therefore move Guinea-Bissau toward a considerably more presidential system, changing the current balance between the presidency and parliament.
Parliament would also be reduced from 102 seats to 65, while the number of electoral constituencies would fall from 29 to 12. Critics argue that the changes could weaken parties with strong local support and reduce parliamentary checks on executive power.
Questions Over Democratic Legitimacy
The timing of the referendum has attracted particular attention because it is being organised while the country remains under a military-led transitional government.
Civil society groups and opposition figures have questioned whether constitutional changes developed during a military transition can provide a credible foundation for restoring democratic civilian rule.
The regional bloc ECOWAS has also called on Guinea-Bissau’s authorities to release detained political figures, including opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira, saying that doing so could strengthen the credibility of the transition process.
The political atmosphere has also been affected by the killing of opposition activist and rapper Vigário Luís Balanta earlier this year, which intensified concerns about political repression and restrictions on opposition voices.
A Critical Vote Ahead of December Elections
The referendum will take place just months before the planned December general elections, making the outcome particularly significant for Guinea-Bissau’s political future.
If approved, the constitutional changes would establish a stronger presidency and fundamentally alter the relationship between the executive and legislature.
Supporters of the reforms argue that a clearer presidential system could reduce the institutional conflicts and political deadlock that have repeatedly destabilised Guinea-Bissau.
Critics, however, warn that concentrating greater authority in the presidency while the country remains under military rule could weaken democratic checks and balances.
For voters on August 30, the referendum will therefore be about more than constitutional wording. It could determine how power is distributed in Guinea-Bissau and what kind of political system emerges as the country prepares for a return to elections and civilian government.
