The Labour Party, led by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, secured an unexpected win in a hard-fought by-election for the Scottish Parliament on Friday, while the right-wing Reform UK party saw a notable increase in support amid controversy surrounding allegations of racism.
Following a particularly bitter campaign, Labour captured the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse seat from the Scottish National Party (SNP), which became vacant after the passing of a Scottish government minister.
This outcome offers some encouragement to Starmer, whose party has experienced a significant decline in backing since last year’s general election victory, which was followed by tax hikes, welfare cuts, and disputes over donations.
Voters appeared to rally behind Labour in the closely watched race after Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, repeatedly made references to the ethnicity of Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who is of Pakistani descent, drawing widespread criticism.
Labour’s candidate, Davy Russell, secured 31.6% of the vote in the Scottish Parliament election, which oversees devolved areas such as health and education. The SNP took 29.4%, while Reform UK came third with 26.1%.
Before the election, betting markets had favored the SNP for a comfortable win, with Labour expected to place third behind Reform UK.
In his victory speech to supporters near Glasgow, Russell declared that the result sent a message to Farage and his supporters that Reform’s divisive politics were unwelcome in Scotland.
Despite Labour’s win, the rise in support for Reform UK — which has recently overtaken Labour in UK-wide opinion polls — indicates the party is gaining ground in both Scotland and England ahead of next year’s Scottish Parliament elections.
Pollster John Curtice noted that although Labour’s victory was surprising, the main story was the surge in Reform UK’s support, which had won only 0.2% in the last Scottish Parliament election in 2021.
Curtice added that while the win may ease concerns among Labour members, the party’s share of the vote remains lower compared to recent contests.
“The result does not suggest Labour has reversed its polling decline,” he said.
Reform UK’s growing popularity in Scotland is unexpected, given that the party’s platform — which includes low taxes, anti-immigration policies, and opposition to the EU — has typically been linked with English nationalism.
Farage visited Scotland just days after his party released an online video falsely claiming that Sarwar intended to “prioritize” the Pakistani community.
Labour condemned the advert as openly racist, while SNP leader John Swinney urged voters to reject Reform’s “gutter politics.” Farage retaliated by accusing Sarwar of fostering sectarianism in Scottish politics.
